Future Climates(未来气候)研究综述
Future Climates 未来气候 - All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. [1] We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). [2] The results demonstrate bubble plumes are unlikely to maintain water column homogeneity under future climates. [3] The role of deep‐water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically‐vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates. [4] However, how microbial predation regulates these communities under future climates is still poorly understood. [5] Population variation in response to aridity should be considered when selecting seed sources for establishing forests for future climates. [6] The aim is to identify the catchments that may face the highest consequences of future climates in terms of the concentration of DOC ([DOC]), where more sophisticated water treatments might be needed. [7] Potential changes in the location, frequency, and characteristics of drylines in future climates are unknown. [8] 64% of the world’s land mass is climatically suitable for the fly; it could establish widely around the globe both under current and future climates with host availability. [9] The city of Nelson (British Columbia) is found to exhibit highest wildfire magnitudes in both historical and future climates. [10] punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). [11] However, because future climates are likely to differ from current climates, there has been ongoing interest in understanding the ability of SDMs to predict species responses under novel conditions (i. [12] Although the lifecycle of hurricanes is well understood, it is a struggle to represent their dynamics in numerical models, under both present and future climates. [13] Here, one of the most abundant and endemic species of bumblebee in China, Bombus pyrosoma, was selected to assess current and future climates’ influence on its distribution with MaxEnt. [14] Using five general circulation model (GCM) simulations, yields under future climates in Malaysia showed an increase in most of the locations. [15] Future climates: Markov blankets and active inference in the biosphere. [16] Investigating multiple aspects of phenology to describe growing‐season dynamics provides a richer understanding of spatiotemporal patterns that can be used for predicting ecosystem responses to future climates and land‐use change. [17] We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. [18] Global warming can disturb this temporal synchronization since interacting species may respond differently to new combinations of photoperiod and temperature under future climates, but experimental studies on the potential phenological responses of plants and pollinators are lacking. [19] We estimate heat and cold mortality and energy consumption in London for typical (non-extreme) future climates, given projected changes in population and housing. [20] We then used the improved model to examine how optimal flowering periods (OFPs, the point at which long-term abiotic stresses are minimal) change under historical and future climates in waterlogging-prone environments, and found that climate change will reduce waterlogging stress and shift forward OFP (26 d earlier on average across locations). [21] The temperature sensitivity of physiological processes and growth of tropical trees remains a key uncertainty in predicting how tropical forests will adjust to future climates. [22] Moisture conditions within the joints were simulated using present and future climates, and probabilities of failure were assessed using the Monte Carlo method. [23] We identified genomic regions potentially involved in local adaptation and predicted differences in the genetic composition across the landscape under current and future climates. [24] glabripennis as a function of current and future climates. [25] They include high-resolution representations of sea-surface temperatures and GCM-based sea ice for present and future climates. [26] Increasing temperatures and water scarcity are concomitant threats to sustainable rice production in future climates. [27] Temperature and precipitation projections for future climates were simulated by five CMIP5 models and downscaled over the study area for the periods of 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1976-2005). [28] Predicting food web structure in future climates is a pressing goal of ecology. [29] City-specific, tailored climate projections combined with tailored health impact models contribute to an evidence base that supports built environment professionals, urban planners and policymakers to ensure designs for buildings and urban areas are fit for future climates. [30] This general framework and the companion CERIS-JGRA analytical package should facilitate biologically informed dissection of complex traits, enhanced performance prediction in breeding for future climates, and coordinated efforts to enrich our understanding of mechanisms underlying phenotypic variation. [31] A simultaneous increase in [CO2] will lead to an inevitable interaction between elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]) and high night temperature (HNT) under current and future climates. [32] Our analysis indicates that Shapiro–Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates. [33] The findings of this research are useful in modeling rice productivity under LTS and for predicting rice productivity under future climates. [34] In order to investigate the impact of realistic LULCC on past and future climates, high-resolution datasets with observed LULCC and projected future LULCC scenarios are required as input for the RCM-LSM simulations. [35] The model was applied to a snow-fed river basin in the Pacific Northwest to evaluate the responses of snow, hydrology, stream temperatures, and fish growth potential to future climates. [36] In the present study, offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region is analysed for the present and future climates. [37] Our analysis indicates that Shapiro-Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting-jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates. [38]这三个项目都预测风暴将变得更加强烈，主要飓风和 5 级风暴的比例将在未来气候中显着增加。 [1] 我们计算了在当前和未来气候下，在其扩散范围内的保护区内特有物种的气候生态位和气候空间，后者由三种气候变化情景和三个时间步长（2030 年、2050 年和 2080 年）表示。 [2] 结果表明，在未来的气候下，气泡羽流不太可能保持水柱的均匀性。 [3] 深水通道在减轻水力脆弱树木死亡率方面的作用对于我们在当前和未来气候下预测森林动态具有重要意义。 [4] 然而，微生物捕食如何在未来气候下调节这些群落仍然知之甚少。 [5] 在为未来气候建立森林选择种子来源时，应考虑对干旱反应的种群变化。 [6] 目的是确定在 DOC ([DOC]) 浓度方面可能面临未来气候影响最大的集水区，在这些集水区可能需要更复杂的水处理。 [7] 未来气候中干线的位置、频率和特征的潜在变化尚不清楚。 [8] 全球 64% 的陆地气候适宜苍蝇；它可以在当前和未来气候条件下在全球范围内广泛建立，并具有主机可用性。 [9] 发现尼尔森市（不列颠哥伦比亚省）在历史和未来气候中都表现出最高的野火强度。 [10] 当前和未来气候下的puntigera（A1B情景）。 [11] 然而，由于未来的气候可能与当前的气候不同，人们一直有兴趣了解 SDM 在新条件下预测物种反应的能力（即。 [12] 尽管飓风的生命周期已广为人知，但在当前和未来的气候下，要在数值模型中表示其动力学是一项艰巨的任务。 [13] 在这里，选择了中国最丰富和特有的大黄蜂物种之一，Bombus pyrosoma，以评估当前和未来气候对其分布的影响。 [14] 使用五种大气环流模型（GCM）模拟，马来西亚未来气候下的产量在大多数地区都显示出增加。 [15] 未来气候：马尔可夫毯子和生物圈中的积极推理。 [16] 通过研究物候学的多个方面来描述生长季节动态，可以更深入地了解可用于预测生态系统对未来气候和土地利用变化的响应的时空模式。 [17] 我们进行了允许对流的气候模型模拟的集合，以检查如果在工业化前和未来气候中发生类似事件，三个龙卷风风暴将如何变化。 [18] 全球变暖可能会扰乱这种时间同步，因为在未来气候下，相互作用的物种可能对光周期和温度的新组合做出不同的反应，但缺乏对植物和传粉媒介潜在物候反应的实验研究。 [19] 考虑到人口和住房的预计变化，我们估计了典型（非极端）未来气候下伦敦的冷热死亡率和能源消耗。 [20] 然后，我们使用改进后的模型检查了历史和未来气候在易涝环境中的最佳开花期（OFP，即长期非生物胁迫最小的时间点）如何变化，并发现气候变化将减少内涝压力并改变前向 OFP（跨位置平均提前 26 天）。 [21] 热带树木的生理过程和生长对温度的敏感性仍然是预测热带森林将如何适应未来气候的关键不确定性。 [22] 使用当前和未来的气候模拟接头内的水分条件，并使用蒙特卡罗方法评估故障概率。 [23] 我们确定了可能参与局部适应的基因组区域，并预测了当前和未来气候下整个景观的遗传组成差异。 [24] glabripennis 作为当前和未来气候的函数。 [25] 它们包括用于当前和未来气候的海面温度和基于 GCM 的海冰的高分辨率表示。 [26] 气温升高和水资源短缺是未来气候下可持续水稻生产的伴随威胁。 [27] 未来气候的温度和降水预测由五个 CMIP5 模型模拟，并在 2050 年代（2040-2069 年）和 2080 年代（2070-2099 年）期间相对于基线期（1976-2005 年）在研究区域缩小尺度。 [28] 预测未来气候中的食物网结构是生态学的紧迫目标。 [29] 针对城市的、量身定制的气候预测与量身定制的健康影响模型相结合，有助于建立一个证据基础，支持建筑环境专业人士、城市规划者和政策制定者，以确保建筑和城市地区的设计适合未来的气候。 [30] 这个通用框架和配套的 CERIS-JGRA 分析包应该有助于对复杂性状进行生物学分析，增强未来气候育种的性能预测，并协调努力以丰富我们对表型变异机制的理解。 [31] 在当前和未来气候下，[CO2] 的同时增加将导致 [CO2] (e[CO2]) 升高和夜间高温 (HNT) 之间不可避免的相互作用。 [32] 我们的分析表明，夏皮罗-凯泽旋风以及产生刺喷流的旋风是当前和未来气候中最具破坏性的风暴。 [33] 这项研究的结果可用于模拟 LTS 下的水稻生产力和预测未来气候下的水稻生产力。 [34] 为了研究现实 LULCC 对过去和未来气候的影响，需要具有观测到的 LULCC 和预测的未来 LULCC 情景的高分辨率数据集作为 RCM-LSM 模拟的输入。 [35] 该模型应用于太平洋西北部的一个积雪河流流域，以评估雪、水文、河流温度和鱼类生长潜力对未来气候的响应。 [36] 在本研究中，分析了西南非洲地区的海上风能资源的当前和未来气候。 [37] 我们的分析表明，夏皮罗-凯泽旋风以及产生刺喷流的旋风是当前和未来气候中最具破坏性的风暴。 [38]
Projected Future Climates 预计的未来气候
We find that the hydrological impacts of fire use are comparable under observed climate and projected future climates, and are largely insensitive to the significant uncertainties regarding post-fire successional trajectories for vegetation. [1] Overall, the linkage between fire occurrence and annual precipitation suggests that climate-driven fire probabilities will be variable under projected future climates. [2] The hygrothermal response of an old brick masonry wall assembly, before and after retrofit, was investigated in two Canadian cities under historical and projected future climates. [3] There was a marked decrease in MPA suitability and interconnectedness for Shortspine Thornyhead under projected future climates, while there was a marked increase in MPA suitability for Dungeness Crab and minor increase in MPA interconnectedness. [4]我们发现，火灾使用的水文影响在观测气候和预测的未来气候下具有可比性，并且在很大程度上对火灾后植被演替轨迹的重大不确定性不敏感。 [1] 总体而言，火灾发生与年降水量之间的联系表明，气候驱动的火灾概率在预测的未来气候下将是可变的。 [2] nan [3] nan [4]
Plausible Future Climates
An early and essential step in developing scenarios is identifying “climate futures”—descriptions of the physical attributes of plausible future climates that could occur at a specific place and time. [1] Moreover, simulations used as target plausible future climates must often be bias-corrected, raising the issue of the order of operations between indices calculation and bias correction (BC). [2]开发情景的一个早期且必不可少的步骤是确定“未来气候”——描述可能在特定地点和时间发生的未来气候的物理属性。 [1] nan [2]
Different Future Climates
From the land surface modeling perspective, there is a need to develop methods to improve the mapping of phenological events for prudent prediction of the land vegetation-atmosphere interactions under different future climates. [1] Our results contribute to the knowledge of how different future climates scenarios could affect the conservation of the studied amphibian species and provide key information for the development of strategies and public policies for management and biodiversity conservation. [2]从地表建模的角度来看，需要开发改进物候事件映射的方法，以便谨慎预测未来不同气候下的陆地植被-大气相互作用。 [1] nan [2]
Under Future Climates
Under future climates, the macaw SDM showed increased probabilities of presence over the area of distribution and connected range extensions. [1] Under future climates, leaf temperature (Tl ) will be higher and more variable. [2]在未来的气候下，金刚鹦鹉 SDM 显示出在分布区域和连接范围扩展的存在概率增加。 [1] nan [2]
Generated Future Climates 产生的未来气候
Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. [1] Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. [2]研究亮点：采用新方法重新分析了高龄起源测试的数据，以直接估计在单独产生的未来气候下其原始地点的人口增长。 [1] 研究亮点：采用新方法重新分析了高龄起源测试的数据，以直接估计在单独产生的未来气候下其原始地点的人口增长。 [2]
Possible Future Climates 可能的未来气候
To investigate these possibilities, we used the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to simulate runoff, erosion, nutrient losses, and crop yields on two Vermont farms in a small set of possible future climates. [1] Robust decision-making methods are applied to the resulting plan options to evaluate how optimized GI implementation varies under different possible future climates and to determine which solutions would be robust under a range of plausible future conditions. [2]为了研究这些可能性，我们使用农业政策/环境扩展 (APEX) 模型来模拟佛蒙特州两个农场在一小部分可能的未来气候中的径流、侵蚀、养分损失和作物产量。 [1] 稳健的决策方法应用于生成的计划选项，以评估优化的 GI 实施在不同可能的未来气候下如何变化，并确定哪些解决方案在一系列可能的未来条件下是稳健的。 [2]
future climates could 未来气候可能
Understanding the thermal limits of germination and early seedling growth in a leading edge population in current and future climates could enable the development of suitable propagation practices and conservation strategies. [1] Potential increases in the E c in future climates could have significant adverse impacts on the local and regional economy if necessary adaptation and mitigation measures are not implemented a priori. [2]了解当前和未来气候下前沿种群的发芽和早期幼苗生长的热限制，可以帮助制定合适的繁殖实践和保护策略。 [1] 如果没有事先实施必要的适应和缓解措施，未来气候中 E c 的潜在增加可能会对当地和区域经济产生重大不利影响。 [2]