In the centres of the Milky Way and M83, the global environmental properties thought to control star formation are indistinguishable within observational uncertainties.

How The Galactic Centre Environment Impacts Star Formation

Here we compute a new set of GC models, varying the IMF within observational uncertainties.

Black Hole Mergers from Star Clusters with Top-heavy Initial Mass Functions

Benchmark scores are much lower than expected, implying large observational uncertainties.

CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) – Part 2: Global benchmarking

These evolutionary changes in surface CNO abundance are indistinguishable in the currently available observations due to large observational uncertainties.

Type IIP Supernova Progenitors and their explodability I: Convective Overshoot, Blue Loops and Surface Composition

Using simulated samples of FRB sight lines through intervening galaxy halos and an illustrative model for the CGM, and including realistic observational uncertainties, we show that small samples (O(10^1)–O(10^2)) of localized FRBs are sensitive to the presence of CGM gas.

Measuring the Circumgalactic and Intergalactic Baryon Contents with Fast Radio Bursts

We test the method on a variety of example data sets and show it is robust with realistic observational uncertainties and selection effects.

A method to analyse velocity structure

Benchmark scores are much lower than expected, implying large observational uncertainties.

CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) – Part 2: Global benchmarking

For our deep learning method to incorporate uncertainties in observation, we augment the training data with noise fluctuations corresponding to observational uncertainties.

Extensive studies of the neutron star equation of state from the deep learning inference with the observational data augmentation

A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall‐triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event.

A multi‐sensor evaluation of precipitation uncertainty for landslide‐triggering storm events

The scatter is generically smaller in TNG50 than in 3D-HST for more massive galaxies with M*> 1010 M⊙, by ∼10–40 per cent, after accounting for observational uncertainties.

Spatially resolved star formation and inside-out quenching in the TNG50 simulation and 3D-HST observations

We find that the change in the planet mass-radius relation caused by the systematic differences between previous and new experimental EOS measurements are comparable to the observational uncertainties in some planet sizes—an issue that will become more important as observations continue to improve.

Implications of an improved water equation of state for water-rich planets

In addition to the visual assessment, the ILLUSTRIS-TNG data set is analyzed by evaluating the galaxies’ merger histories and accounting for typical observational uncertainties.

The Intricate Connection Between Major Mergers and AGN with the Highest Eddington Ratios

In the centres of the Milky Way and M83, the global environmental properties thought to control star formation are indistinguishable within observational uncertainties.

How The Galactic Centre Environment Impacts Star Formation

From the observational uncertainties of those experiments, we put an upper bound on the axion decay constant as fa.

Constraints on axionic fuzzy dark matter from light bending and Shapiro time delay

Based on a range of experiments, they conclude their particle filter based method was able to find the ground truth mantle viscosity parameters given different initial ensemble probabilities, observational uncertainties and spatial-temporal data coverage.

Comment on npg-2021-20

Here we compute a new set of GC models, varying the IMF within observational uncertainties.

Black Hole Mergers from Star Clusters with Top-heavy Initial Mass Functions

It results in an ensemble of 100,000 monthly temperatures 10 fields over the entire globe that samples the combination of coverage, parametric and observational uncertainties from 1850 till 2018 over a 5◦× 5◦ grid.

Global Ensemble of Temperatures over 1850–2018: Quantification of Uncertainties in Observations, Coverage, and Spatial modelling (GETQUOCS)

The analysis of the results revealed that the performances were also dependent on the spatial patterns of the different examined SAWCs and was limited by the observational uncertainties of the SAWCs determined from auger holes.

Harvesting spatially dense legacy soil datasets for digital soil mapping of available water capacity in Southern France

Including observational uncertainties to theoretical values of Mstars and SFR changes the quenched fraction values and their trend and/or slope with mass.

Quenched fractions in the IllustrisTNG simulations: comparison with observations and other theoretical models

The major model deficiencies are excessive small MCS occurrence and overmuch MCS rainfall, consequently overestimating the precipitation contributions, whereas observational uncertainties may play a role too.

Warm-season mesoscale convective systems over eastern China: convection-permitting climate model simulation and observation

However, the observational uncertainties hinder the robust evaluation of these climate model simulations.

Evaluation of climate model simulations in representing the precipitation non-stationarity by considering observational uncertainties

The error in the spin estimate arising from the combined observational uncertainties is obtained via Monte Carlo simulations.

Re-estimating the Spin Parameter of the Black Hole in Cygnus X-1

However, observational uncertainties and short temporal coverage make biogeochemistry evaluation uncertain while potential predictability is found to be high.

NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP

JUST can simultaneously estimate the trend and seasonal components of any equally or unequally spaced time series by considering the observational uncertainties or measurement errors.

JUST: MATLAB and python software for change detection and time series analysis

The possible causes of these differences include internal climate variability, observational uncertainties, and model shortcomings, including excessive aerosol forcing.

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the associated mechanisms in CMIP6 models

It is found that (1) in general, model biases are larger than observational uncertainties and model performances are primarily consistent compared to different observational references, (2) By changing the atmospheric forcing from CORE-II to JRA55-do reanalysis data, the overall performance (mean state, interannual variability and trend) of the simulated sea ice areal properties in both hemispheres, as well as the mean ice thickness simulation in the Antarctic, the mean snow depth and ice drift simulations in both hemispheres are improved, (3) the simulated sea ice areal properties are also improved in the model with increased spatial resolution, (4) for the cross-metric analysis, there is no link between the performance in one variable and the performance in another.

SITool (v1.0) – a new evaluation tool for large-scale sea ice simulations: application to CMIP6 OMIP

Recent significant advances in the numerical, theoretical and statistical asteroseismic methods applied to main sequence stars with convective cores have renewed the interest in investigating the propagation of observational uncertainties within a forward asteroseismic modelling framework.

Towards a systematic treatment of observational uncertainties in forward asteroseismic modelling of gravity-mode pulsators

Unfortunately, it is not generally possible to quantify some of the observational uncertainties in such a data scarce area and mostly we are limited to identifying where these data are clearly deficient (i.

Unpacking some of the linkages between uncertainties in observational data and the simulation of different hydrological processes using the Pitman model in the data scarce Zambezi River basin

</p> </div><div> <p>In recent years, Bayesian inference has emerged as a powerful tool in the environmental modeler&#8217;s toolbox, providing a convenient framework in which to model parameter and observational uncertainties.

Incorporating observational errors in multivariate hydrologic model calibration: the value in known unknowns

Best-fitting TDMs reproduce binned PINT data during the Bruhnes and before inner core nucleation (ICN) within observational uncertainties, but PINT does not contain the predicted strong increase and subsequent high TDMs during the early stages of inner core growth.

Dynamo constraints on the long-term evolution of Earth’s magnetic field strength

We aim to study several aspects that affect the internal characterization of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes: observational uncertainties, location on the M–R diagram, impact of additional constraints such as bulk abundances or irradiation, and model assumptions.

Impact of the measured parameters of exoplanets on the inferred internal structure.

From the observational uncertainties of those experiments, we obtain an upper bound on the axion decay constant as fa≲ 9.

Constraints on axionic fuzzy dark matter from light bending and Shapiro time delay

The observations from 21 November 2020 to 19 January 2021 are analyzed to recover the solstice’s instant in Capricorn, the ingresses into Sagittarius and Aquarius, and the corresponding observational uncertainties.

Earth’s Obliquity and Stellar Aberration Detected at the Clementine Gnomon (Rome, 1703)

In general, model biases are larger than observational uncertainties, and model performance is primarily consistent compared to different observational references.

SITool (v1.0) – a new evaluation tool for large-scale sea ice simulations: application to CMIP6 OMIP

Furthermore, the centrifugal acceleration causes the pulsation periods and period spacings of the most common g modes (prograde dipole modes and r modes) to increase with values similar to the observational uncertainties of the measured period spacing values in Kepler and TESS data.

The effect of the centrifugal acceleration on period spacings of gravito-inertial modes in intermediate-mass stars

But the observed trend would exceed the standard deviation of a few high-variability' climate models only' by a factor of about two, thus unlikely to be internally generated but not practically impossible given unavoidable climate system and observational uncertainties.

Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability

Overall, UVIOS slightly overestimated UVI due to observational uncertainties in inputs of cloud and aerosol.

Real-time UV-Index retrieval in Europe using Earth Observation based techniques and validation against ground-based measurements

Additionally, observational uncertainties might preclude closure of the catchment-scale water balance, which is a pre-requisite for most catchment-scale hydrological models.

Empirical attribution of a drying Himalayan river through remote sensing and secondary data

The findings also revealed that observational uncertainties can influence AV and contribute to a 6 to 34% difference in significant positive AV spatial coverage results.

Assessing Past Climate Biases and the Added Value of CORDEX-CORE Precipitation Simulations over Africa

Overall, UVIOS slightly overestimated the UVI due to observational uncertainties in inputs of cloud and aerosol.

Real-time UV index retrieval in Europe using Earth observation-based techniques: system description and quality assessment

The success of the CGAN in solving this problem suggests that generative adversarial networks are applicable to a wide range of problems in atmospheric science, a field characterized by complex spatial structures and observational uncertainties.

Reconstruction of Cloud Vertical Structure With a Generative Adversarial Network

These represent the minimum uncertainties; observational uncertainties will be higher.

Using the Tip of the Red Giant Branch as a Distance Indicator in the Near Infrared

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we derive probabilistic constraints for TRAPPIST-1's stellar and XUV evolution that account for observational uncertainties, degeneracies between model parameters, and empirical data of low-mass stars.

On The XUV Luminosity Evolution of TRAPPIST-1.

We measured the UV slopes ($\beta$) of the objects in our sample and then recovered the intrinsic probability density function of $\beta$ values (PDF($\beta$)), taking into account the effect of observational uncertainties through detailed simulations.

UV slope of z$\sim$3 bright ($L>L^{*}$) Lyman-break galaxies in the COSMOS field

A model that describes a mixture of two self-gravitating non-relativistic ideal gases, “baryons” and “dark matter”, reproduces the measured rotation curves within observational uncertainties.

A Study of Dark Matter with Spiral Galaxy Rotation Curves

Locations of stations are more important than the magnitude of reduction since it depends on the values of the prior and observational uncertainties.

Designing surface CO2 monitoring network to constrain the Indian land fluxes

Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter, our approach accounts for model and observational uncertainties.

Data assimilation of in-situ and satellite remote sensing data to 3D hydrodynamic lake models

In this study, we assessed the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) over West Africa without targeting any application-specific feature, while jointly evaluating its boundary conditions and accounting for observational uncertainties.

Evaluation of the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model Rainfall Simulations over West Africa Using Large-Scale Spatial and Temporal Statistical Metrics

Our approach has similarities to the classic Soltan analysis, but by using galaxy-based data instead of integrated quantities we are able to focus on regimes where observational uncertainties are minimized.

Probing black hole accretion tracks, scaling relations and radiative efficiencies from stacked X-ray active galactic nuclei

A maximum likelihood analysis that accounts for observational uncertainties, binarity and censored data, yields marginal evidence for radius inflation -- the average radius of these stars is $6\pm4$ per cent larger at a given luminosity than predicted by commonly-used evolutionary models.

A search for radius inflation among active M-dwarfs in Praesepe

Combining this sample with K-band spectroscopy of 5 cluster members, we forward model the Arches cluster to simultaneously constrain its IMF and other properties (such as age and total mass) while accounting for observational uncertainties, completeness, mass segregation, and stellar multiplicity.

The Unusual Initial Mass Function of the Arches Cluster

Developing cost-effective surveillance methods to reduce observational uncertainties, and quantitative frameworks for determining how resources should be spatially apportioned to multiple monitoring and control activities are important and challenging future directions for optimizing ROI for invasive species control programs.

Optimal spatial prioritization of control resources for elimination of invasive species under demographic uncertainty

We also demonstrate that additional constraints can be derived from the fact that dark photons increase the luminosity of the RGB tip over the current observational uncertainties.

Constraining dark photon properties with Asteroseismology

This isotope ratio is especially sensitive to IMF variations, and is little affected by observational uncertainties.

The Evolution of CNO Isotope Ratios: A Litmus Test for Stellar IMF Variations in Galaxies Across Cosmic Time

We verify that the mass and redshift slopes and the intrinsic scatter of the MORs are nearly independent of cosmology with variations significantly smaller than current observational uncertainties.

Cosmology dependence of galaxy cluster scaling relations

Results show improved LAI predictions and less model residual error for both catchments when accounting for satellite observational uncertainties in a Bayesian framework.

Ecohydrologic Error Models for Improved Bayesian Inference in Remotely Sensed Catchments

Using simulated samples of FRB sight lines through intervening galaxy halos and an illustrative model for the CGM, and including realistic observational uncertainties, we show that small samples (O(10^1)–O(10^2)) of localized FRBs are sensitive to the presence of CGM gas.

Measuring the Circumgalactic and Intergalactic Baryon Contents with Fast Radio Bursts

At later epochs, however, differences among the models are diluted, becoming almost indistinguishable given current observational uncertainties.

2D-Galactic chemical evolution: the role of the spiral density wave

We test the method on a variety of example data sets and show it is robust with realistic observational uncertainties and selection effects.

A method to analyse velocity structure

We applied it to the out-of-transit Lya observations of GJ 436 obtained by the HST and compared the calculated in-transit absorption with observational uncertainties to determine if it would be detectable.

Transit Ly-$\alpha$ signatures of terrestrial planets in the habitable zones of M dwarfs

We also demonstrate that tensions in measurements of $H_0$ can produce an uncertainty in the Local Group mass estimate comparable to observational uncertainties on the separation and relative velocity of the galaxies, with values for the mass ranging from $4. The Two Body Problem in the Presence of Dark Energy and Modified Gravity: Application to the Local Group In this issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Brient (2020) provides a thorough survey on the concept of emergent constraints while emphasizing some fundamental issues associated with the concept—namely, the importance of physical understanding, observational uncertainties, and statistical inference in the uncertainty of emergent constraints. Constraining the Emergent Constraints We develop a new quantity,$X_\mathrm{LIS}^\mathrm{O3}$, that combines these two properties into a single predictor of net Ly$\alpha$emission, which we find describes$\sim$90% of the observed variance in Ly$\alpha$equivalent width when accounting for our observational uncertainties. Predicting Ly$\alpha$Emission from Galaxies via Empirical Markers of Production and Escape in the KBSS. In light of this large aliasing by internal climate variability and observational uncertainties, the broad agreement between CMIP5 and observations over 1871–2016 may be largely coincidental. Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability This requires models, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), and assessments of the specific spatial-temporal accuracy and resolution required for priority science and assessment of observational uncertainties of the mean state and direct flux measurements. Constraining Southern Ocean Air-Sea-Ice Fluxes Through Enhanced Observations These evolutionary changes in surface CNO abundance are indistinguishable in the currently available observations due to large observational uncertainties. Type IIP Supernova Progenitors and their explodability I: Convective Overshoot, Blue Loops and Surface Composition Taking observational uncertainties into account we determine an intrinsic velocity dispersion of$\sigma_{\rm intr}=4.

A Second Galaxy Missing Dark Matter in the NGC 1052 Group

The budget of ionizing photons for cosmic reionization has been constrained, although there remain large observational uncertainties in the parameters.

Observations of Ly$$\alpha$$ Emitters at High Redshift

For the remaining five stars we can not make a distinct prediction ($p_{mono} \lesssim 50\%$) due to theoretical and observational uncertainties.

Fingerprint of the first stars: multi-enriched extremely metal-poor stars in the TOPoS survey

However, for high gas fractions, the scatter is larger due to larger observational uncertainties as well as a potential dependence of the dust grain growth timescale and supernova dust yield on local conditions and star formation histories.

A systematic metallicity study of DustPedia galaxies reveals evolution in the dust-to-metal ratios